P/L comparison
Buy & hold
P/L COMPARISON · PERCENT FROM ENTRY
buy & hold · participation factor overlaybuy & hold · Qlib / Alpha158 baseline
Weekly rebalance
P/L COMPARISON · PERCENT FROM ENTRY
weekly rebalance · participation factor overlayweekly rebalance · Qlib / Alpha158 baseline
Performance tables
| Management | Arm | Horizon | Status | Return | Maximum | Max date | Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| buy & hold | participation factor overlay | 3 months | complete | 2.56% | 5.05% | 2025-10-06 | -4.61% |
| buy & hold | participation factor overlay | 6 months | complete | 9.18% | 9.51% | 2026-01-12 | -6.54% |
| buy & hold | Qlib / Alpha158 baseline | 3 months | complete | 1.94% | 4.35% | 2025-10-06 | -4.00% |
| buy & hold | Qlib / Alpha158 baseline | 6 months | complete | 8.21% | 8.21% | 2026-01-14 | -6.32% |
| weekly rebalance | participation factor overlay | 3 months | complete | 3.27% | 4.99% | 2025-10-03 | -3.61% |
| weekly rebalance | participation factor overlay | 6 months | complete | 10.21% | 10.21% | 2026-01-14 | -5.90% |
| weekly rebalance | Qlib / Alpha158 baseline | 3 months | complete | 0.71% | 2.18% | 2025-10-03 | -3.91% |
| weekly rebalance | Qlib / Alpha158 baseline | 6 months | complete | 6.28% | 6.28% | 2026-01-14 | -6.43% |
Position ledger
This portfolio holds the initial selection. There are no scheduled rebalance decisions after entry.
Selected arm positions
50 positions in the selected record: buy & hold · participation factor overlay. The charts and performance table above contain all four arms in this formation group.
| Ticker | Entry date | Entry open | Model prediction | Participation score | Excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJG | 2025-07-14 | 306.89 | 0.3064 | 0.4778 | no |
| ALL | 2025-07-14 | 187.99 | 0.2145 | 0.4744 | no |
| AZO | 2025-07-14 | 3711.21 | 0.2133 | 0.4899 | no |
| BF.B | 2025-07-14 | 27.82 | 0.1724 | — | no |
| BKNG | 2025-07-14 | 225.44 | 0.2137 | 0.4619 | no |
| BRK.B | 2025-07-14 | 474.32 | 0.2139 | — | no |
| BX | 2025-07-14 | 154.74 | 0.2075 | 0.4834 | no |
| CAG | 2025-07-14 | 17.73 | 0.6175 | 0.4280 | no |
| CARR | 2025-07-14 | 74.91 | 0.2956 | 0.4990 | no |
| CCL | 2025-07-14 | 28.21 | 0.3282 | 0.4144 | no |
| CNC | 2025-07-14 | 31.46 | 0.2867 | 0.4022 | no |
| CSCO | 2025-07-14 | 66.45 | 0.2030 | 0.5303 | no |
| DLTR | 2025-07-14 | 109.18 | 0.2097 | 0.5342 | no |
| DOW | 2025-07-14 | 27.48 | 0.1741 | 0.4116 | no |
| EMR | 2025-07-14 | 136.90 | 0.2103 | 0.5005 | no |
| ENPH | 2025-07-14 | 41.99 | 0.5320 | 0.4321 | no |
| ETR | 2025-07-14 | 78.98 | 0.2027 | 0.4533 | no |
| FCX | 2025-07-14 | 45.19 | 0.1683 | 0.4843 | no |
| FICO | 2025-07-14 | 1540.67 | 0.3544 | 0.4580 | no |
| FIS | 2025-07-14 | 75.70 | 0.1994 | 0.4161 | no |
| FTV | 2025-07-14 | 51.98 | 0.1675 | 0.5048 | no |
| INVH | 2025-07-14 | 30.98 | 0.3182 | 0.4077 | no |
| IR | 2025-07-14 | 87.96 | 0.2066 | 0.5055 | no |
| ITW | 2025-07-14 | 252.06 | 0.2169 | 0.5049 | no |
| JBL | 2025-07-14 | 220.62 | 0.2506 | 0.5029 | no |
| LII | 2025-07-14 | 609.35 | 0.1728 | 0.4872 | no |
| MMM | 2025-07-14 | 152.07 | 0.2547 | 0.5185 | no |
| MOS | 2025-07-14 | 34.81 | 0.2009 | 0.4145 | no |
| MSFT | 2025-07-14 | 496.61 | 0.2217 | 0.4670 | no |
| MTCH | 2025-07-14 | 31.82 | 0.1683 | 0.4259 | no |
| MU | 2025-07-14 | 120.19 | 0.1994 | 0.5678 | no |
| NFLX | 2025-07-14 | 124.49 | 0.3789 | — | no |
| NI | 2025-07-14 | 38.37 | 0.2032 | 0.4612 | no |
| NSC | 2025-07-14 | 259.59 | 0.2276 | 0.4401 | no |
| ORCL | 2025-07-14 | 226.86 | 0.3110 | 0.5227 | no |
| PNC | 2025-07-14 | 189.66 | 0.2527 | 0.4417 | no |
| QCOM | 2025-07-14 | 152.36 | 0.2548 | 0.5474 | no |
| ROST | 2025-07-14 | 129.45 | 0.1660 | 0.4272 | no |
| RTX | 2025-07-14 | 145.09 | 0.2535 | 0.5330 | no |
| STX | 2025-07-14 | 147.33 | 0.2775 | 0.5641 | no |
| TEL | 2025-07-14 | 175.03 | 0.2839 | 0.4543 | no |
| TRMB | 2025-07-14 | 79.91 | 0.2651 | 0.4463 | no |
| TSLA | 2025-07-14 | 317.73 | 0.7964 | 0.4583 | no |
| TSN | 2025-07-14 | 51.99 | 0.2070 | 0.4319 | no |
| TT | 2025-07-14 | 432.52 | 0.2743 | 0.5009 | no |
| UBER | 2025-07-14 | 95.19 | 0.2675 | 0.5437 | no |
| UNH | 2025-07-14 | 291.97 | 0.1909 | 0.4181 | no |
| WAB | 2025-07-14 | 211.71 | 0.1722 | 0.4694 | no |
| WEC | 2025-07-14 | 101.13 | 0.2043 | 0.4362 | no |
| WSM | 2025-07-14 | 170.81 | 0.3900 | 0.5054 | no |