P/L comparison
Buy & hold
P/L COMPARISON · PERCENT FROM ENTRY
buy & hold · participation factor overlaybuy & hold · Qlib / Alpha158 baseline
Weekly rebalance
P/L COMPARISON · PERCENT FROM ENTRY
weekly rebalance · participation factor overlayweekly rebalance · Qlib / Alpha158 baseline
Performance tables
| Management | Arm | Horizon | Status | Return | Maximum | Max date | Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| buy & hold | participation factor overlay | 3 months | complete | 8.00% | 8.53% | 2025-10-27 | -3.55% |
| buy & hold | participation factor overlay | 6 months | complete | 21.53% | 21.53% | 2026-02-11 | -4.94% |
| buy & hold | Qlib / Alpha158 baseline | 3 months | complete | 6.33% | 7.27% | 2025-10-27 | -3.46% |
| buy & hold | Qlib / Alpha158 baseline | 6 months | complete | 21.59% | 21.59% | 2026-02-11 | -4.89% |
| weekly rebalance | participation factor overlay | 3 months | complete | 7.18% | 7.51% | 2025-10-27 | -4.41% |
| weekly rebalance | participation factor overlay | 6 months | complete | 8.60% | 10.97% | 2026-01-15 | -5.49% |
| weekly rebalance | Qlib / Alpha158 baseline | 3 months | complete | 6.11% | 7.94% | 2025-10-27 | -4.09% |
| weekly rebalance | Qlib / Alpha158 baseline | 6 months | complete | 7.93% | 9.82% | 2026-01-15 | -6.10% |
Position ledger
This portfolio holds the initial selection. There are no scheduled rebalance decisions after entry.
Selected arm positions
50 positions in the selected record: buy & hold · participation factor overlay. The charts and performance table above contain all four arms in this formation group.
| Ticker | Entry date | Entry open | Model prediction | Participation score | Excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIG | 2025-08-11 | 76.35 | 0.3238 | 0.4605 | no |
| ALB | 2025-08-11 | 83.36 | 0.2231 | 0.4140 | no |
| ALL | 2025-08-11 | 202.16 | 0.1833 | 0.4689 | no |
| AMD | 2025-08-11 | 170.04 | 0.5956 | 0.5765 | no |
| APA | 2025-08-11 | 19.54 | 0.3748 | 0.4719 | no |
| AZO | 2025-08-11 | 4043.99 | 0.1717 | 0.4870 | no |
| BAC | 2025-08-11 | 44.85 | 0.1494 | 0.4261 | no |
| BAX | 2025-08-11 | 23.35 | 0.2847 | 0.4074 | no |
| BBY | 2025-08-11 | 64.69 | 0.1716 | 0.4580 | no |
| BIIB | 2025-08-11 | 131.16 | 0.1625 | 0.4026 | no |
| CAG | 2025-08-11 | 17.91 | 0.2440 | 0.4274 | no |
| COST | 2025-08-11 | 977.46 | 0.1777 | 0.5257 | no |
| DHI | 2025-08-11 | 155.14 | 0.1750 | 0.4307 | no |
| FSLR | 2025-08-11 | 184.28 | 0.5841 | 0.4543 | no |
| FTNT | 2025-08-11 | 74.02 | 0.2968 | 0.4989 | no |
| FTV | 2025-08-11 | 46.92 | 0.2863 | 0.5031 | no |
| GD | 2025-08-11 | 308.55 | 0.1712 | 0.5723 | no |
| GNRC | 2025-08-11 | 199.49 | 0.2030 | 0.4134 | no |
| HPE | 2025-08-11 | 20.45 | 0.1759 | 0.4984 | no |
| IT | 2025-08-11 | 228.11 | 0.2250 | 0.4537 | no |
| KMB | 2025-08-11 | 128.43 | 0.4889 | 0.4049 | no |
| LKQ | 2025-08-11 | 28.01 | 0.1709 | 0.5251 | no |
| MCHP | 2025-08-11 | 59.92 | 0.2721 | 0.5613 | no |
| MNST | 2025-08-11 | 32.22 | 0.3667 | 0.4223 | no |
| MRNA | 2025-08-11 | 26.15 | 0.5697 | 0.4085 | no |
| MSFT | 2025-08-11 | 517.19 | 0.1540 | 0.4701 | no |
| MU | 2025-08-11 | 124.77 | 0.4956 | 0.5825 | no |
| NEE | 2025-08-11 | 70.22 | 0.1611 | 0.4559 | no |
| NOW | 2025-08-11 | 173.58 | 0.2815 | 0.5016 | no |
| NTRS | 2025-08-11 | 122.66 | 0.2016 | 0.4436 | no |
| NVR | 2025-08-11 | 7868.18 | 0.1843 | — | no |
| O | 2025-08-11 | 54.16 | 0.2525 | 0.4057 | no |
| PANW | 2025-08-11 | 167.20 | 0.1769 | 0.5430 | no |
| PCAR | 2025-08-11 | 95.33 | 0.1959 | 0.4626 | no |
| RF | 2025-08-11 | 23.79 | 0.1826 | 0.4094 | no |
| SYF | 2025-08-11 | 68.37 | 0.3873 | 0.4214 | no |
| TFC | 2025-08-11 | 41.25 | 0.2059 | 0.4142 | no |
| TPL | 2025-08-11 | 286.34 | 0.4981 | 0.4424 | no |
| TRV | 2025-08-11 | 260.14 | 0.2482 | 0.4561 | no |
| TYL | 2025-08-11 | 594.51 | 0.1764 | 0.4467 | no |
| UBER | 2025-08-11 | 89.81 | 0.2816 | 0.5200 | no |
| UNP | 2025-08-11 | 216.75 | 0.1563 | 0.4379 | no |
| UPS | 2025-08-11 | 80.26 | 0.3058 | 0.4184 | no |
| VRTX | 2025-08-11 | 362.97 | 0.2895 | 0.4277 | no |
| WDC | 2025-08-11 | 75.09 | 0.2107 | 0.5368 | no |
| WM | 2025-08-11 | 231.26 | 0.1819 | 0.4415 | no |
| WMT | 2025-08-11 | 102.79 | 0.1479 | 0.5119 | no |
| WY | 2025-08-11 | 24.36 | 0.1950 | 0.4473 | no |
| YUM | 2025-08-11 | 138.13 | 0.1943 | 0.4092 | no |
| ZBH | 2025-08-11 | 98.50 | 0.2184 | 0.4307 | no |