P/L comparison
Buy & hold
P/L COMPARISON · PERCENT FROM ENTRY
buy & hold · participation factor overlaybuy & hold · Qlib / Alpha158 baseline
Weekly rebalance
P/L COMPARISON · PERCENT FROM ENTRY
weekly rebalance · participation factor overlayweekly rebalance · Qlib / Alpha158 baseline
Performance tables
| Management | Arm | Horizon | Status | Return | Maximum | Max date | Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| buy & hold | participation factor overlay | 3 months | complete | 7.72% | 8.40% | 2025-10-27 | -3.64% |
| buy & hold | participation factor overlay | 6 months | complete | 21.12% | 21.12% | 2026-02-11 | -4.88% |
| buy & hold | Qlib / Alpha158 baseline | 3 months | complete | 5.04% | 6.34% | 2025-10-27 | -3.11% |
| buy & hold | Qlib / Alpha158 baseline | 6 months | complete | 15.91% | 15.91% | 2026-02-11 | -4.70% |
| weekly rebalance | participation factor overlay | 3 months | complete | 6.52% | 6.71% | 2025-10-27 | -3.61% |
| weekly rebalance | participation factor overlay | 6 months | complete | 9.22% | 11.56% | 2026-01-22 | -5.90% |
| weekly rebalance | Qlib / Alpha158 baseline | 3 months | complete | 4.48% | 6.05% | 2025-10-27 | -3.84% |
| weekly rebalance | Qlib / Alpha158 baseline | 6 months | complete | 7.33% | 9.46% | 2026-01-22 | -6.43% |
Position ledger
This portfolio holds the initial selection. There are no scheduled rebalance decisions after entry.
Selected arm positions
50 positions in the selected record: buy & hold · participation factor overlay. The charts and performance table above contain all four arms in this formation group.
| Ticker | Entry date | Entry open | Model prediction | Participation score | Excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE | 2025-08-11 | 334.53 | 0.1659 | 0.4757 | no |
| ADM | 2025-08-11 | 56.26 | 0.2277 | 0.4520 | no |
| ADP | 2025-08-11 | 294.63 | 0.2227 | 0.4328 | no |
| AES | 2025-08-11 | 12.53 | 0.2153 | — | no |
| AIG | 2025-08-11 | 76.35 | 0.3342 | 0.4605 | no |
| ALB | 2025-08-11 | 83.36 | 0.4103 | 0.4140 | no |
| ALL | 2025-08-11 | 202.16 | 0.2320 | 0.4689 | no |
| AMD | 2025-08-11 | 170.04 | 0.3868 | 0.5765 | no |
| AMP | 2025-08-11 | 499.68 | 0.2487 | 0.4642 | no |
| APA | 2025-08-11 | 19.54 | 0.3533 | 0.4719 | no |
| AZO | 2025-08-11 | 4043.99 | 0.1888 | 0.4870 | no |
| BAC | 2025-08-11 | 44.85 | 0.2314 | 0.4261 | no |
| BAX | 2025-08-11 | 23.35 | 0.1974 | 0.4074 | no |
| BIIB | 2025-08-11 | 131.16 | 0.2570 | 0.4026 | no |
| CAG | 2025-08-11 | 17.91 | 0.4149 | 0.4274 | no |
| COST | 2025-08-11 | 977.46 | 0.1983 | 0.5257 | no |
| F | 2025-08-11 | 10.80 | 0.2138 | 0.4896 | no |
| FSLR | 2025-08-11 | 184.28 | 0.7207 | 0.4543 | no |
| FTNT | 2025-08-11 | 74.02 | 0.2036 | 0.4989 | no |
| FTV | 2025-08-11 | 46.92 | 0.2761 | 0.5031 | no |
| GPN | 2025-08-11 | 80.34 | 0.1981 | 0.4087 | no |
| HRL | 2025-08-11 | 27.18 | 0.1769 | 0.4343 | no |
| IT | 2025-08-11 | 228.11 | 0.2240 | 0.4537 | no |
| ITW | 2025-08-11 | 251.24 | 0.1498 | 0.4968 | no |
| KMB | 2025-08-11 | 128.43 | 0.3300 | 0.4049 | no |
| LEN | 2025-08-11 | 118.85 | 0.1528 | 0.4357 | no |
| MCHP | 2025-08-11 | 59.92 | 0.2092 | 0.5613 | no |
| MRNA | 2025-08-11 | 26.15 | 0.7294 | 0.4085 | no |
| MU | 2025-08-11 | 124.77 | 0.6127 | 0.5825 | no |
| NOW | 2025-08-11 | 173.58 | 0.1988 | 0.5016 | no |
| NTRS | 2025-08-11 | 122.66 | 0.1476 | 0.4436 | no |
| O | 2025-08-11 | 54.16 | 0.1627 | 0.4057 | no |
| PANW | 2025-08-11 | 167.20 | 0.2532 | 0.5430 | no |
| PODD | 2025-08-11 | 307.12 | 0.1513 | 0.4122 | no |
| RF | 2025-08-11 | 23.79 | 0.1653 | 0.4094 | no |
| ROST | 2025-08-11 | 144.44 | 0.3083 | 0.4216 | no |
| STLD | 2025-08-11 | 121.40 | 0.2300 | 0.4998 | no |
| SYF | 2025-08-11 | 68.37 | 0.3714 | 0.4214 | no |
| TFC | 2025-08-11 | 41.25 | 0.2094 | 0.4142 | no |
| TPL | 2025-08-11 | 286.34 | 0.3795 | 0.4424 | no |
| TRV | 2025-08-11 | 260.14 | 0.2323 | 0.4561 | no |
| TSLA | 2025-08-11 | 335.00 | 0.1785 | 0.4619 | no |
| TSN | 2025-08-11 | 54.61 | 0.1773 | 0.4754 | no |
| UPS | 2025-08-11 | 80.26 | 0.3094 | 0.4184 | no |
| VRSK | 2025-08-11 | 262.19 | 0.1524 | 0.4844 | no |
| WDC | 2025-08-11 | 75.09 | 0.1765 | 0.5368 | no |
| WM | 2025-08-11 | 231.26 | 0.1541 | 0.4415 | no |
| WMT | 2025-08-11 | 102.79 | 0.1884 | 0.5119 | no |
| WY | 2025-08-11 | 24.36 | 0.3287 | 0.4473 | no |
| ZBH | 2025-08-11 | 98.50 | 0.2028 | 0.4307 | no |