P/L comparison
Buy & hold
P/L COMPARISON · PERCENT FROM ENTRY
buy & hold · participation factor overlaybuy & hold · Qlib / Alpha158 baseline
Weekly rebalance
P/L COMPARISON · PERCENT FROM ENTRY
weekly rebalance · participation factor overlayweekly rebalance · Qlib / Alpha158 baseline
Performance tables
| Management | Arm | Horizon | Status | Return | Maximum | Max date | Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| buy & hold | participation factor overlay | 3 months | complete | 12.11% | 13.71% | 2026-08-14 | -4.58% |
| buy & hold | participation factor overlay | 6 months | open · current through 2026-09-18 | 10.75% | 13.71% | 2026-08-14 | -4.58% |
| buy & hold | Qlib / Alpha158 baseline | 3 months | complete | 10.81% | 12.11% | 2026-08-14 | -2.75% |
| buy & hold | Qlib / Alpha158 baseline | 6 months | open · current through 2026-09-18 | 8.80% | 12.64% | 2026-08-21 | -4.58% |
| weekly rebalance | participation factor overlay | 3 months | complete | 6.75% | 9.63% | 2026-06-30 | -10.83% |
| weekly rebalance | participation factor overlay | 6 months | open · current through 2026-09-18 | 5.85% | 10.39% | 2026-08-19 | -10.83% |
| weekly rebalance | Qlib / Alpha158 baseline | 3 months | complete | 6.77% | 9.82% | 2026-06-30 | -10.84% |
| weekly rebalance | Qlib / Alpha158 baseline | 6 months | open · current through 2026-09-18 | 6.54% | 10.55% | 2026-08-19 | -10.84% |
Position ledger
This portfolio holds the initial selection. There are no scheduled rebalance decisions after entry.
Selected arm positions
50 positions in the selected record: buy & hold · participation factor overlay. The charts and performance table above contain all four arms in this formation group.
| Ticker | Entry date | Entry open | Model prediction | Participation score | Excluded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABBV | 2026-05-18 | 208.88 | 0.3417 | 0.4722 | no |
| AMD | 2026-05-18 | 429.50 | 0.3415 | 0.6248 | no |
| AOS | 2026-05-18 | 55.80 | 0.2550 | 0.4472 | no |
| APA | 2026-05-18 | 38.53 | 0.9795 | 0.5719 | no |
| APO | 2026-05-18 | 132.76 | 0.4034 | — | no |
| APTV | 2026-05-18 | 54.21 | 0.3895 | 0.4234 | no |
| AXON | 2026-05-18 | 393.72 | 0.6528 | 0.4642 | no |
| BLDR | 2026-05-18 | 70.59 | 0.7926 | 0.4293 | no |
| BMY | 2026-05-18 | 56.81 | 0.3699 | 0.5074 | no |
| CF | 2026-05-18 | 122.37 | 0.8018 | 0.4239 | no |
| CNC | 2026-05-18 | 58.11 | 0.6987 | 0.4499 | no |
| CRWD | 2026-05-18 | 147.37 | 0.4384 | 0.4821 | no |
| CTVA | 2026-05-18 | 81.72 | 0.2657 | 0.4327 | no |
| DELL | 2026-05-18 | 244.20 | 0.3462 | 0.5636 | no |
| DG | 2026-05-18 | 101.40 | 0.4979 | 0.5117 | no |
| DOW | 2026-05-18 | 37.65 | 0.5550 | 0.4612 | no |
| ERIE | 2026-05-18 | 211.46 | 0.2536 | — | no |
| FCX | 2026-05-18 | 62.20 | 0.7583 | 0.5485 | no |
| FICO | 2026-05-18 | 1094.21 | 0.6648 | 0.4511 | no |
| FIX | 2026-05-18 | 1986.11 | 0.4228 | 0.5308 | no |
| GE | 2026-05-18 | 283.04 | 0.4958 | 0.4877 | no |
| GILD | 2026-05-18 | 128.58 | 0.3125 | 0.4669 | no |
| GWW | 2026-05-18 | 1269.86 | 0.2520 | 0.4633 | no |
| HCA | 2026-05-18 | 423.19 | 0.4150 | 0.4667 | no |
| HD | 2026-05-18 | 294.85 | 0.3136 | 0.4411 | no |
| HLT | 2026-05-18 | 314.70 | 0.2455 | 0.4272 | no |
| HOOD | 2026-05-18 | 76.00 | 0.4472 | 0.4736 | no |
| HRL | 2026-05-18 | 19.53 | 0.3743 | 0.4500 | no |
| INTC | 2026-05-18 | 113.47 | 0.3108 | 0.6289 | no |
| LITE | 2026-05-18 | 953.29 | 0.7163 | 0.6093 | no |
| LLY | 2026-05-18 | 999.18 | 0.2580 | 0.4744 | no |
| LOW | 2026-05-18 | 217.08 | 0.3123 | 0.4795 | no |
| LYB | 2026-05-18 | 72.83 | 0.7350 | 0.4459 | no |
| MTD | 2026-05-18 | 1036.57 | 0.4253 | 0.4171 | no |
| NOW | 2026-05-18 | 98.86 | 0.3295 | 0.4230 | no |
| ON | 2026-05-18 | 114.19 | 0.4586 | 0.6409 | no |
| PANW | 2026-05-18 | 238.91 | 0.2815 | 0.4590 | no |
| PODD | 2026-05-18 | 146.91 | 1.2548 | 0.4148 | no |
| SMCI | 2026-05-18 | 31.22 | 0.2661 | 0.5606 | no |
| STX | 2026-05-18 | 800.43 | 0.2608 | 0.6110 | no |
| SW | 2026-05-18 | 37.38 | 0.2844 | 0.4433 | no |
| SWK | 2026-05-18 | 73.91 | 0.4714 | 0.4927 | no |
| TER | 2026-05-18 | 337.62 | 0.5727 | 0.6635 | no |
| TSCO | 2026-05-18 | 30.27 | 1.0683 | 0.4913 | no |
| TXT | 2026-05-18 | 88.98 | 0.2870 | 0.4941 | no |
| VLO | 2026-05-18 | 247.81 | 0.2503 | 0.5617 | no |
| VRT | 2026-05-18 | 370.13 | 0.2741 | 0.4910 | no |
| WAT | 2026-05-18 | 330.28 | 0.5851 | 0.4226 | no |
| WTW | 2026-05-18 | 248.06 | 0.2546 | 0.4438 | no |
| XEL | 2026-05-18 | 77.23 | 0.3115 | 0.4404 | no |